In this video, Authentic8’s Digital Intelligence Advocate AJ Nash explains why most cybersecurity predictions miss the mark and why the intelligence community doesn’t make “predictions” at all. Instead, real intelligence assessments focus on confidence levels, assumptions, alternative scenarios, and indicators that tell you when you might be wrong.
In this video, Authentic8’s Digital Intelligence Advocate AJ Nash explains why most cybersecurity predictions miss the mark and why the intelligence community doesn’t make “predictions” at all. Instead, real intelligence assessments focus on confidence levels, assumptions, alternative scenarios, and indicators that tell you when you might be wrong.
AJ Nash discusses the limitations of relying solely on Indicators of Compromise (IOCs) in cybersecurity. Instead, he highlights the importance of Indicators and Warning (I&W) for predicting and preventing cyber threats before they occur. Drawing parallels to military intelligence, he explains why understanding adversary behavior and contextual analysis are crucial for an effective threat intelligence program.
AJ Nash, Digital Intelligence Advocate at Authentic8, discusses the most common failure in threat intelligence: reports that go unread and unutilized. This episode dives into the importance of effective dissemination, highlighting how crucial it is to deliver the right information to the appropriate decision-makers in a timely manner and in an accessible format. Nash emphasizes understanding the specific needs of stakeholders and tailoring the delivery format accordingly to ensure intelligence is not just produced but also actionable and impactful.
AJ Nash dives into how organizational shortcomings, rather than technological failures, often lead to significant cybersecurity breaches. Highlighting case studies like Microsoft's midnight blizzard breach and the Change Healthcare breach, he emphasizes the critical role of clear governance and accountability in preventing such incidents. He discusses the recently updated Cybersecurity Performance Goals (CPG 2.0) from the CSA and stresses the importance of knowing and managing all systems within an organization.
AJ Nash, Authentic8 Digital Intelligence Advocate, discusses the concept of actionable intelligence in the security field. AJ breaks down the gap between threat feeds and true intelligence, explaining why IOCs, CVEs, and reports still leave teams asking “so what?” Real value comes not from more data, but from intelligence that drives informed operations — something you can’t buy as a feed alone.
